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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still