Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
